In 2019, the number of tourists in the AEOI reached 9.9M, growing 55.2% since 2010, although the area only accounted for 17.8% of tourist arrivals in sub-Saharan Africa over this period. Over the decade, ¾ of foreign tourists went to 5 countries: Kenya (18.4% of arrivals), Rwanda (14.4%), Uganda (13.9%), Tanzania (13 .5%) and Mauritius (12.5%). Before the health crisis, the countries having experienced the strongest growth in number of arrivals were the Comoros (+194.8% in 10 years), Rwanda (+145.0%) and the Seychelles (+124.1 %). The crisis, however, has severely affected the tourism sector across the region, with the loss of 2.2 million jobs between 2019 and 2020, and a drop in the contribution to GDP of 6.2 points of GDP on average. . Several countries in the region, however, stand out for the importance of their domestic tourism, notably Kenya (68% of expenditure in 2019) and Tanzania (31% of expenditure).
The AEOI as a zone constitutes the 4th African destination over the period 2010-2019 (11.7% of international arrivals)behind South Africa (19.0%), Morocco (14.9%) and Egypt (14.1%). At the country level, Kenya (8th), Rwanda (11th), Uganda (12th), Tanzania (14th) and Mauritius (15th) are among the top 15 tourist destinations on the continent. Tourism, however, is still constrained by security risks and insufficient infrastructure.
Tourism is characterized by particularly significant business tourism, as well as significant domestic tourism for several countries which has been less affected by the health crisis. Business tourism thus represented 82% of tourism spending in 2019 in Tanzania, 59% in Burundi and 49% in Rwanda, compared to only 13% in Uganda and 21% in the Comoros. In terms of volumes, they were largest in Kenya (USD 2.2 billion), Ethiopia (USD 1.6 billion) and Tanzania (USD 1.4 billion) in the same year. Domestic tourism represents an essential resource for Burundi (96% of tourism spending in 2019), Kenya (68%) and Sudan (42%) in 2019. In terms of the amount of spending, Kenya (3.9 billion USD), Ethiopia (1.5 billion USD) and Tanzania (1.2 billion USD) dominate the regional ranking.
The tourism sector has been particularly affected by the health crisis, due to lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed to slow the epidemic. As a result, the contribution of the tourism sector to the GDP of all countries in the region has fallen, halving for most countries. Madagascar, heavily dependent on tourism, is thus the most affected country in the region, the share of tourism in its GDP having increased from 12.7% in 2019 (around 1.7 billion USD) to 4.4% (590. 3 MUSD) in 2020, while in Ethiopia the decline was relatively less significant, from 6.8 to 4.3% of its GDP (from 6.0 Bn USD to 3.9 Bn USD), attenuated by the support of the Government.
The repercussions of the health crisis on the labor market of AEOI countries were also significant, and represented a decrease in total employment of 25 to 35% between 2019 and 2020. Nearly 30,000 jobs were lost in Burundi, 259,000 in Madagascar, 412,000 in Tanzania and 500,000 in Ethiopia, respectively increasing the share of the tourism sector in all jobs from 4.6 to 3.0% in Burundi; from 9.9 to 6.9% in Madagascar; from 6.2 to 4.5% in Tanzania; and from 7.1 to 5.3% in Ethiopia.
The countries of the region have put in place strategies to promote the revival of tourismwhich revolve around three main axes:
- Strengthen land and air infrastructure to access new markets. Kenya, where JKIA airport will be renovated, is targeting new markets such as France, Sweden and Poland, while the airline Kenya Airwayswhose financial situation is critical, announced the establishment of daily flights to India. In Rwanda, the new Kigali airport should be built in Bugesera, and will increase the airport’s capacity to 10 million passengers/year from 2025. In Tanzania, strengthening land infrastructure would facilitate access to the country, while USD 247 million has been allocated to Air Tanzania for the 2022/2023 fiscal year. Maurice also plans to increase the number of seats offered for sale via his company Air Mauritius.
- Diversify the tourist offer and focus on high-end tourism. Madagascar plans to develop high-end tourism and seaside tourism, while the Mauritian government plans to upgrade services in order to encourage an increase in tourist spending. In Rwanda, a strategy focused on the Gulf States as well as the United States also aims to maintain and strengthen a high-end positioning started several years ago.
- Encourage business and internal tourism. In Kenya, the recovery of tourism could involve strengthening business tourism through the modernization of its infrastructure intended for international conferences. The Ugandan government is also looking to further strengthen domestic tourism.
French companies are positioned in several countries, despite a sector dominated by national, regional (particularly South African) and Anglo-Saxon (United Kingdom, United States) players. French groups are particularly present in the sector of the hotel industryvia the Accor groups (Djibouti, Madagascar, Kenya, Seychelles, Mauritius, Rwanda, Tanzania, etc.), Club Med (Mauritius), Vatel (Mauritius, Rwanda), air transport (Air France and Air Austral serve several AEOI destinations via direct flights), or safari transport (emotion in Tanzania). France is also committed to safeguarding and preserving the cultural heritage of several countries (Ethiopia, Tanzania, etc.).
Other factors could have repercussions on the tourism sector in the short and medium term. The first concerns the conflict in Ukrainewith on the one hand the rise in fuel prices which could increase the price of transport and consequently reduce travel, and on the other the drying up of the Russian and Ukrainian markets. Russian tourists thus represented 17% of international tourists to Seychelles in 2021, and 1% of total Mauritian tourists in 2019, who were concentrated in the lucrative sectors such as yachting or long stays. The effects of the conflict are also already visible in Zanzibar, where nearly a thousand Ukrainians are stranded due to the closure of airspace to civilian flights. Climate change and its effects constitute another challenge for the tourism sector of AEOI countries. Indeed, rising temperatures, rising sea levels, the effects of extreme weather conditions on coastal regions and even the loss of biodiversity will have harmful consequences on tourism. The development of sustainable tourism or eco-tourism demonstrates the consideration at a minimum sector of these issues.
